Originally Published on November 28, 2018

Based off of in-depth scouting, combined with some advanced stats stuff I did at Stanford, I tweeted out lists the last two years of players I thought would significantly outperform their recruiting rankings. Below are the tweets. I’m going to go through each individual player with the rationale I had at the time, and see how they did. I delete all my old tweets so they aren’t brought up before the masses in the inevitable purging of those who don’t speak Newspeak, but I promise these are the only lists I tweeted out and I didn’t omit anyone post hoc. Most of these are personal evals, but I also had access to evals from the tremendous staff I worked with at Stanford. In this post I’ll examine my 2016 predictions, then do 2017 predictions (with less total data) sometime soon thereafter. Spoiler: Most hit, and there’s a common thread with some predictive validity. Connor Harding just got back from a Mormon mission so there’s no way to know on him yet.

Each player will get a ++, +, 0, -, or — — , where ++ = wildly exceeded expectations and — — = wildly underperformed, on a sliding scale. All stats screenshots courtesy of Basketball Reference and Barttorvik.com

2016 (2.2 years of data)

Eyassu Worku, UC-Irvine, G, Unranked 3-star, 41st best PG composite out of HS, +

Eyassu had only low and mid major offers, but we took a long look at him at Stanford. He was 17 when he graduated high school, He’s going to be a three year starter at Irvine; he’s struggled some with efficiency but is a very good player, and should have another year of improvement relative to the typical aging curve due to age. Was he a high major starter like I suspected? Too early to tell but maybe not, but he is still a very good college player. One +.

2. Miye Oni, Yale, G, Unranked, 2 Star, ++

Miye originally was committed to the same D3 as Duncan Robinson. He opened his recruitment up, came to our elite camp and played poorly (wouldn’t shoot threes, even though he’d hit 7 in a high school game). We still liked him and asked him to wait. He got nervous, committed to Yale, then beat down Josh Jackson head to head in July. He is 6’7″, athletic, can shoot and make plays. We would have offered and knew he was good. With the way he played in July, bias against a small school is the only reasonable explanation as to why he wasn’t ranked. Miye will be a four year starter at Yale, and a dang good college player. Easily a high major starter. He has an outside chance at being a 2nd round pick, as an Ivy leaguer with 0 high major offers, I’m giving this a two plus.

3. Myles Powell, Seton Hall, G, 4 Star, 81 Composite, ++

Myles caught my eye scouting an opponent when he was going into his junior year. He was um, overweight, and shot something like 15 threes and made 7 in the game I watched. His advanced stuff was good. I knew he was slightly underrated, but had no idea he would be putting up 24 a game as a junior in the Big East. Easy two plus.

4. Yoeli Childs, 6’8″, C, BYU, 3-star, 114th nationally composite, ++

Yoeli is a mountain of a man with soft hands that was on the all potential team. He fulfilled his potential. 20 a game as a junior and may be Mountain West player of the year. Two Plus.

5. Tyrique Jones, 6’8″, Xavier, 3-Star, 105th on 247 Composite. 0

Tyrique rose up the rankings late-this was a better value pick before he rose up late. Largely done off his ridiculous advanced rebounding stats. Has been solid but not spectacular at X. Let’s call this a wash-he’s doing what he’s supposed to.

6. Kamar Baldwin, 6’1″ guard, Butler, 3-Star, 155th 247, ++ (+?)

Kamar is 9th in KenPom’s player of the year and may be an All-American this year. He’s very good. He stood out on tape (and in person from what folks I worked with said at the time). Range, tough as nails, knew how to guard, and was slithery. 150th ranked player ending up an All-American is a three plus if that’s allowed.

7. Henry Baddley, 6’4″ Wing, Butler, ranked 301st on 247, 3-Star, +

Henry caught my eye on film because of his length and fluidity. He has been a solid player at Butler, providing excellent perimeter defense and surprising shot making, but hasn’t made a leap this year. One plus.

8. Jordan Ford, St. Mary’s, 6’2″, G, 154th composite, 247, 3-Star

Ford is the best player by a substantial margin for a top 35 St. Mary’s team. His advanced EYBL stats were unreal, but his slight frame scared people away. He looked good on film too. Scoring an efficient 22 a game this year, tough shot maker! 2 Plus.

9. Jagan Mosely, Georgetown, 6’2″, Guard, St. Anthony’s, 159th on 247

Jagan was a tough, Bob Hurley guard who really got after it on D, with limited feel and skillset. I knew he was a worker and thought those two components would improve. No luck. He’s been lackluster for a lackluster team at Georgetown. One minus.

10. Jeriah Horne, 6’5″ Wing, Nebraska/Tulsa, 3-Star ranked 176th, 0

Horne scored in the Under Armour league like he breathed, and looked good on film too. He was a little overweight but skill usually wins out. He was meh at Nebraska and now is meh at Tulsa. I over-estimated how much his athleticism would improve at this level. One minus.

11. Josh Okogie, Wing, 6’5″, Georgia Tech, 182 composite 3-Star, +++

Advanced stats loved Okogie and he looked just as good on film. Did I know he’d be a pro (and potentially a good one)? No sir. But I did know him barely squeaking into getting a high major offer was ludicrous. 10-year pro now. Three pluses.

Conclusion: Most of these hit (3 potential All-Americans in college and a future NBA Starter in my group of 10), with the common theme that they all didn’t fit a traditional positional archetype. Check back soon for the 2017 list, and feel free to let me know any questions you have about my process here!